Thanks for the link,
The comment continues
Thus, while the hemisphere as a whole is cooler, individual areas may alternately break temperature and precipitation records at both extremes. If global temperatures should fall even further, the effects could be considerably more drastic.
Depending on the amount of energy still stored on the oceans, due to the solar grand maximum of the XX century, we may see some abnormal localized high (and cold) temperatures, but with solar radiation declining this scenario will probably not last very long.
Probably not after 2017 world’s temperatures should stabilize with marked lower averages than now.
If this happens, this El Nino, and following La Nina, will define another step change in world’s temps- similar to the 1997-2001 event- this time breaking the “hiatus” towards a *lowering trend* worldwide.
The superposition of DMI graphs is very instructive. It’s clear that the general temperatures of the NP in 1964 (minimum between cycles #19 and #20) were lower than in 2015 (end of maximum of present cycle-24), but the spike in December is analogous and more intense than the present one.
I believe the “never-ending” El Nino of this year combined with declining AMO and solar radiations (in general) is causing chaos to Earth’s climate.
The EUV radiation spiked this year to levels even higher than 2011 and 2014,
(look at the first graph for E10.7 flux)
and we can see also a “little spike” in the last few weeks, with index close to 200, which is somewhat “anomalous” because the F10.7 flux has been generally low recently, around 110 or lower.
It seems clear that we’re entering the declining phase of the present cycle (similar to the period 2005-07 of cycle-23), but the recent little enhancement of EUV is probably delaying the end of the El Nino and producing localized regions of abnormal weather all over the world.
Both polar regions have been cooling in recent years, as indicated by the ocean temperatures of the Arctic and Antarctic regions, but Antarctica’s temperatures a much more stable than the NP ones,
The very warm PDO of the last ~2 years is the main cause of the strong oscillations of the Antarctic ice extent, from the quite stable previous state of positive anomalies since 2012.
The increasing anomalies should return after the PDO goes down to neutral and negative again in about 6 months, more or less.
One thing I don’t understand though is why it got so warm, especially at the end of 2014 and beginning of this year.
A possible reason is a spike of the EUV (E10.7 index) that happened exactly during this period, which was also the highest – in the present solar cycle – since the end of 2011,
The first spike of E10.7 flux corresponds to the Sun’s N. Pole maximum, the second spike is more prominent and corresponds to the the stronger S.Pole maximum.
The magnetic NP of the Sun has been around zero micro-T since it crossed zero in 2011 (http://www.solen.info/solar/polarfields/polar.html)
This is more than 4 years of low fields, after crossing. I believe it could be an indication of the LP-effect being proved correct. The anomalous PDO+ could be an indication of chaotic behavior due to the anomalous intensity of the NS-poles of the Sun.
the entire article at climate4you is here,
but, if the PDO is in negative phase since 2008, how the Pacific can be so warm? Maybe it’s following a similar path as the Atlantic but out of phase by a few years.
The original article is here,
I believe the Pacific is more sensible to solar activity than the Atlantic, due to its huge size.
I have to admit that I don’t understand what is happening with the PDO very well. The AMO, on the other hand, looks like a very precise thermometer of Earth’s global temperatures.
Arctic sea ice anomaly on Nov 11, 2015.
You didn’t understand my comment, and I’ll not try to explain it to you, but for those that may have read it without a biased mind and may be confused by your meaningless comment, I’ll try to expand a little what I said.
The model of Prof. Zharkova predicts a period of very low radiations from the Sun, similar to what happened in 2008-09 (two years) for no less than one entire solar cycle (11+ years).
The RSS graph clearly shows the profound implications of low radiations for an extended period (measured in years, not just a few weeks or months).
The oscillation downward of the anomalies in the 2008-09 period was comparable to the La Nina that followed the 1997-98 El Nino, but the ENSO of 2007 was much milder. Therefore, it seems clear to me that the additional cooling all came from the low radiative input from the Sun.
However, the El Nino’s tend to push worlds temps upward, as happened in 2010, but in this case the following La Nina’s (of 2011 and 2012) were not strong enough to bring the temperature anomalies down to 2008 levels.
Therefore, we may safely conclude that if the El Nino of 2010 didn’t happen, or if it had not been so strong, the world’s anomalies would be *easily* 0.1 to 0.2 C below the present levels.
Now imagine what would happen if instead of just one period we had a repetition of 2008-09 for 11+ years in a row.
I can imagine, in this case, a drop of 1 C during such a prolonged minimum, and this would bring Earth’s temperatures back to early 1800’s levels, typically LIA levels.
The ONI index is showing a not so strong El Nino so far,
It looks comparable to the moderate episode of 2006-07.
I agree with Steve that the N. Pacific is loosing energy fast, the PDO+ is quickly going down, as happened in similar previous spikes, the anomaly decreased by more than 1C since the beginning of this year,
I think solar radiations are also playing an important role and should help to accelerate the process in the final months of this year.
What is happening now looks like a different phenomenon than the previous moderate or strong El Nino’s.
Temperatures at the S. Pole are now at one of its lowest levels since 1979,
The N. Pole temps are also falling since 2011.
The problems with the Arctic ice this year are (IMO) exclusively due to the abnormal spike of the PDO, that started in 2014,
Thanks for the link, “125 years of cooling”?!
It’s more than Prof. Zharkova is predicting.
Here is a cut-n-paste of the main points
1. The 18+ years temperature pause is real. (4.09)
2. Natural cycles are behind the current pause.
3. Ice cores show CO2 lags temperature. (5.00)
4. 7000 years ago there was 50% less Arctic ice. (8.20)
5. The 1000-year cycle is real. (9.20)
6. Planet has been cooling over past 10,000 years. (9.34)
7. Natural cycles are driving our climate. (10.04)
8. Shows [natural cycles?] cooling from 2023 to 2150.
9. Current warming is perfectly natural.
10. Milankovitch cycles driving large-scale cycles. (13.00)
11. Gravitational forces can bulge Earth’s core by 1.4 km (15.35)
12. Gravitational forces impact global temperature (17.20)
13. Warming and cooling both begin at the poles (17.48)
14. Arctic warming/melt was caused by warm ocean pulses (19.50)
15. “Now starting to see a dramatic cooling in the Arctic“. (22.50)
16. “Arctic is cooling rapidly now. Rapidly!” (24.06)
17. Both poles are cooling rapidly now. (25.05)
18. Poles don’t show signs of warming. (26.30)
19. Western drought and Eastern cold due to 26-year cycle. (27.55)
20. Polar vortices due to Arctic/global cooling. (29.25)
21. Lunar cycles correlated with warming/cooling cycles. (31.30)
22. Rapid global cooling by 2019. (32.00)
23. “Temperature fiddling” are “more political than anything”. (32.56)
24. “Could be the biggest scientific scandal ever”. (33.20)
25. IPCC using “estimated temperatures”. (34.00)
26. How the government manipulated, rewrote data. (36.00)
27. “This is temperature fiddling.” Not the truth. (36.45)
28. NASA, NOAA’s “politically driven press releases”. (37.00)
29. Met Office calls NOAA’s 2014 claim untrue. (38.00)
30. Major data fiddling, cheating by NOAA. (39.50)
31. “The 97% consensus is bogus”. (41.00)
32. John Cook cooked the consensus data. (41.30)
33. 85% meteorologists say climate change is natural. (42.20)
34. Global cooling is the real danger. (43.20)
35. Volcanoes and cooling often correlated. (44.00)
36. Crop failures from cooling “very likely”. (45.45)
37. “Extremely cold” from 2025 to 2050. (46.36)
38. Global cooling next 125 years. (47.00)
39. “The cooling is coming”.
I’d like to highlight the following two, which I agree, but may be controversial to some people,
13. Warming and cooling both begin at the poles (17.48)
17. Both poles are cooling rapidly now. (25.05)
I’ve noticed also that David Dilley, as usual, doesn’t mention the Sun.
I tend to believe that if what he and Prof. Zharkova say are correct, there is a good chance that glacial inception will happen this century.
The difference of the present AMO levels to the lowest of the XX century is *only* ~ 0.5 C,
The non detrended AMO index (average North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST)) is probably below 21 C now.
Here is what I think NSIDC is conveniently hiding: the PDO has reached its warmest level since 1997,
and it coincided with the local maximum of solar radiations (2nd peak) from the end of 2013 to January this year, as happened with the solar maximums of cycles C21 (~1982-83), C22 (~1992-93) and C23 (~2002-03), which also corresponded to local spikes of the PDO.
I believe the low level of the Arctic ice of the beginning of this years was *entirely* a consequence of relatively strong solar radiations in 2014 that importantly favored the abnormal warming of the Pacific, but for the NSIDC folks it was caused by CO2! 🙂
I guess if the present PDO, coinciding with a (not so strong) El Nino, would not be the harbinger of another step change in Earth’s climate, obviously toward a colder climate.
One thing is very clear from the PDO graph since 1979, the general trend of the Pacific is into a negative phase.
Why Cryosphere is giving 1.7 million below average?
It makes no sense, it’s totally incompatible with the DMI graph.
The different reference averages, 1979-2000 (DMI) and 1979-2008 (Cryosphere), should give a *smaller* difference to the average for Cryosphere than DMI.
Are they using different ice concentrations?
What about the Antarctic ice,
Is it back to negative anomalies again?
if “yes”, how can we understand this new trend if the southern oceans are quite cold (as they’ve been in the last few years) in comparison with the NH,
Sometimes the Cryosphere graph seems to diverge from other data.
Q. Chic Bowdrie says: July 20, 2015 at 1:14 am
Here’s a link predicting a different outcome.
Can anyone interpret this temperature vs. pressure dual for me?
Caleb could explain this better than me, but he seems to be talking about a pattern of winds that caused the very low minimums of Arctic ice extent in 2007 and 2012. He’s analyzing the local patterns of temperature and pressure in the Arctic and concluding that this year we have a SLP pattern similar to 2007 to 2012, “which caused an Arctic Dipole in those years”.
In my opinion he’s wrong, because he’s not considering the different phases of the PDO
now and in 2007, 2012.
The Pacific ocean has warmed considerably and the Atlantic has cooled relatively to those years and this presents a less favorable scenario for great ice loss.
Another important fact he’s not considering is the low level of radiations this year in comparison with 2012, which had a 1st semester with relatively strong level of radiations in comparison with present levels.
He’s is obviously wishing for a very low minimum of ice extent this year, like in 2007 and 2012 (he calls the Arctic Dipole his “old friend”, not without a reason), but I don’t think his wish will be granted this year, by Mother Nature.
I think solar radiations are an important component of the answer.
The aa-index dropped dramatically since 2003, solar activity entered a new phase back to what it was at the beginning of the XX century and before,
(not to mention the Linvingston-Penn effect and the predictions of even lower cycles after the present one)
Lowering solar cycles are cooling Earth’s climate very fast.
The large ENSO of 1997-98, was a sign (not a cause, IMO) of a step change of Earth’s climate from a warming phase into the present “hiatus” or “slightly cooling” phase,
and the PDO is just reflecting these changes. There was a big spike in 1997-98 too similar to the present one,
By comparison, here is Bob Tisdale animation of the strong ENSO episode of 1997-98
from this post (2011)
Note that, at its strongest phase, all oceans were warm or neutral, the entire world warmed as a whole. This is very different from what is happening now where we have cold anomalies in Antarctica and good portions of the Atlantic and S. Pacific.
In my opinion the present problems with the Polar icecaps are temporary and should revert until the end of this year.
Direct satellite measurements tell a very different story,
It’s showing signs of rebound since 2008, when the maximum extent (April-May) started to get closer to the average again, after the very low levels of 2007.
In the last 3 years the minimum extent has been above 6 million km2 (15% concentration – DMI analysis), with good chances to repeat the feat this year,
and the 30% concentration close to 4 million km2, as happened in 2009-10,
The “recovery” seems well defined IMO, and it should accelerate in the coming years, due to less solar activity of the declining phase of the present cycle.
Posted @ https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/07/24/my-arctic-forecast-11/#comment-531545
DMI graph for concentration higher than 15% still shows ice extent slightly above the last 2 years,
I believe it’ll track 2014 closely until September, then go higher for the rest of the year. Solar activity seems to have entered the declining phase of the cycle. The LSC gave a spotless day for July 23,
and the total count for this year is also lower than 2013 and 2014
All these facts bring good prospects for both polar icecaps for the rest of 2015. The only problem I see now is the persistent strong warmth of the Pacific. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________ Thanks, here is an article of 2004 about Earth’s declining magnetic field,
and here is a discussion about the connection of the excursions of Earth’s magnetic poles and the end of previous interglacials, stadials, etc.,
The following graph shows the accelerated excursion of the Earth’s N. Magnetic Pole in recent decades,
I’ve been researching this topic for a few years and I’m convinced that glacial inception should happen in the “near future” (in geological terms), as I said in my previous post.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________ http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/09/0909_040909_earthmagfield.html posted on YT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKTZRjJFdXk
Posted on YT https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKTZRjJFdXk
I agree, this interglacial (Holocene) is all but finished. A new prolonged minimum (with solar activity even lower than the present already low cycle C24) will only accelerate the process.
If the predicted deep minimum doesn’t come-for some reason- glacial inception will still occur, but it’d take a few centuries to happen.
On the other hand, if the temperatures drop dramatically in the coming decades, the glacial inception will in all probability happen already this century.
Solar insolation at 65 N is very low now, lower than in various previous inceptions, and shall remain almost unaltered for thousands of years.
The Holocene temperatures have been falling steadily for at least 2,000 years,
the Maunder Minimum was only an abnormal dip in the process, due to low radiations 400 years ago, but the inception didn’t happened at that time probably due to stronger Earth’s magnetic field
Earth’s Magnetic Field Is Fading John Roach for National Geographic News September 9, 2004
Humanity should show maturity, as a species, and start a collective effort worldwide in preparation for the coming cold. People think in terms of the XX century, but it was an abnormally warm period- due to a prolonged solar grand maximum that lasted more than 7 decades.
The solar maximum has ended, and the importance of the low insolation at high latitudes should become clearer during the rest of this century.
Even the AGW alarmists agree that the Holocene would probably end if was not for “anthropogenic influence”, which they believe will revert the trend.
Now we, the skeptics, *know* that the greenhouse gases are causing no change in Earth’s climate in our time, and therefore we’re left only with the Sun, Earth’s magnetic field and insolation at high latitudes (modulated by ocean thermal oscillations, volcanic activity, etc.) to drive Earth’s climate. All these factors are telling us, very clearly IMO, that the present interglacial is about to end. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________ https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/07/15/1935-india-heatwave-made-roofs-catch-on-fire/#comment-530902
Interesting how you comment, “June 1935 was the first month of the modern maximum in solar activity, that lasted for 70 years until 2004.5,a period when the v2 SSNs averaged 108.5, versus the previous 70 years, 1865.5-1935.5 ..”
matches the data for aa-index very closely,
The trimester average was below 20 nT up to cycle C16, then it quickly increased in cycle C17 and remained stable above 20 nT up to the middle last cycle, C23. But, don’t tell this to NASA and NOAA (and possibly L. Svalgaard too), they think the Sun and the climate are totally disconnected! 🙂
and comments here,
How can we understand anything of Nature, if we don’t even know how to formulate our questions? We know that the Maunder minimum was colder than now and the Dalton minimum was similarly cold, in direct correlation with solar activity.
Now we’re about to have a modern, direct experience of a solar minimum, after an obvious extended solar maximum,
and instead of looking at the phenomenon we change the rules and say that “nothing is happening”?
posted @ https://starsintheircourses.wordpress.com/2015/07/16/taiko-and-adaptation-vs-innovation/comment-page-1/#comment-2
Hi Myriam, thanks for another beautiful article!
I find it really difficult to understand, as you said, that
“The traditional understanding of the passage of time is that it is unfolding from the center and perfection, and thus, is a process of decline“.
I cannot identify the “force” or process that could produce such a result.
Could it be the robotization of the human mind? I mean, the increasing concern of the mind with the “here and now”, causing a disconnection from the more intuitive / contemplative aspects of existence?
Anyway, I know for sure that we’re living a period of lack of fundamental discoveries in science and an important period of change of paradigm is necessarily coming. Science has been absorbed by the machine of Capitalism + Politics, and lost its original vigor.
The fact that, for example, we have not been able to identify any other intelligent species outside of our Planet Earth — at the same time that our technology is supposed to be so “sophisticated” that we can send a probe to Pluto and have all those beautiful images and information about the Planet, that appeared on the MSM recently — is one of those things that makes you very suspicious about the real ability of our science to understand the Universe.
We’re also living a time when human sexuality has become one of the central aspects of human life, as if we were an “adolescent species” discovering it’s true sexual nature. This “discovery” seems to be pointing towards the empowerment of the feminine in human culture, in general.
Do you see any chance that the present “robotization” of human life could be reversed, by whatever external or internal agents (to humanity) that could make humans review their position in the Universe and their perceptions of their own lives?
BTW, do you think our present rendezvous with Pluto now has any special astrological significance?
Hi Myriam, just a question, you said
There is a physical reason for the misalignment and a metaphysical reason. The physical reason is due to a slight wobble in the Earth’s orbit, the fixed stars and constellations appear to move very, very slight amount every year. This is known as the Precession of the Equinoxes. The metaphysical reason is that physical manifestation is in constant flux and change, and the movement of time is a movement away from the Center and Perfection.
Using this analogy, if the Precession of the Equinoxes is a periodic, repetitive motion, shouldn’t the “movement [of the creature] away from the Center and Perfection [God]” also have the same periodicity?
If the Precession stopped, would this imply Astrologically, that the movement away from the Center, has stopped too?
@ HenryP April 13, 2015 12:40 pm:
Referring to your comment at
You said that [according to Trenberth] O3 is responsible for ~ 25% of back radiation (into outer space) from the total incoming from the Sun. This is a large number and it’s important in the analysis of the influence of O3 in the present instability of Earth’s climate, especially at the polar regions.
I believe O3 is a key component of this instability. The importance if O3 for Earth’s climate is perhaps, the most difficult to access. Nobody seems to have all the answers.
I believe the O3 hole in Antarctica will continue and possibly increase, as the radiations will probably lower from now on and the continent will get colder.
Usually the O3 hole at Antarctica is associated with the seasonal cooling of that continent, e. g.,
due to meteorological conditions, not a general cooling trend, associated with the competition between warming from the Sun and warming by non-emission of radiations back to outer space by the atmosphere (meteorology).
Similarly, due to lowering radiations, an O3 hole should appear in the Arctic as soon as the ice extent starts to get back to average levels again, probably in a couple of years.
It’s not clear from your comment how important are the nitrogen oxides and peroxides to enhance back radiation, i. e. percentually, to accelerate the cooling.
Your comments at
seem to indicate that the solar radiations are in direct relation with the average magnitude of the polar fields, but (if that is what you’re saying) I disagree with this assertion.
In summary, I believe the Sun has entered a new grand minimum phase where the radiations will probably get lower from now on, for an indefinite period of time.
The polar fields seem to be reflecting this trend, but it’s not very clear (IMO) what connects the radiations and the magnitude of the fields.
I don’t see a minimum of solar power happening in 2016, but I really believe the radiations will get lower in the years ahead, and possibly much lower if the predictions of a Maunder type minimum come to pass.