posted at:
@ HenryP April 13, 2015 12:40 pm:
Referring to your comment at
You said that [according to Trenberth] O3 is responsible for ~ 25% of back radiation (into outer space) from the total incoming from the Sun. This is a large number and it’s important in the analysis of the influence of O3 in the present instability of Earth’s climate, especially at the polar regions.
I believe O3 is a key component of this instability. The importance if O3 for Earth’s climate is perhaps, the most difficult to access. Nobody seems to have all the answers.
I believe the O3 hole in Antarctica will continue and possibly increase, as the radiations will probably lower from now on and the continent will get colder.
Usually the O3 hole at Antarctica is associated with the seasonal cooling of that continent, e. g.,
http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/article/67/7/10.1063/PT.3.2449?dm_i=1Y69,2LFVV,E4CSKB,9H5SN,1
due to meteorological conditions, not a general cooling trend, associated with the competition between warming from the Sun and warming by non-emission of radiations back to outer space by the atmosphere (meteorology).
Similarly, due to lowering radiations, an O3 hole should appear in the Arctic as soon as the ice extent starts to get back to average levels again, probably in a couple of years.
It’s not clear from your comment how important are the nitrogen oxides and peroxides to enhance back radiation, i. e. percentually, to accelerate the cooling.
Your comments at
seem to indicate that the solar radiations are in direct relation with the average magnitude of the polar fields, but (if that is what you’re saying) I disagree with this assertion.
In summary, I believe the Sun has entered a new grand minimum phase where the radiations will probably get lower from now on, for an indefinite period of time.
The polar fields seem to be reflecting this trend, but it’s not very clear (IMO) what connects the radiations and the magnitude of the fields.
I don’t see a minimum of solar power happening in 2016, but I really believe the radiations will get lower in the years ahead, and possibly much lower if the predictions of a Maunder type minimum come to pass.
dmhscratch1 