I think solar radiations are an important component of the answer.
The aa-index dropped dramatically since 2003, solar activity entered a new phase back to what it was at the beginning of the XX century and before,
(not to mention the Linvingston-Penn effect and the predictions of even lower cycles after the present one)
Lowering solar cycles are cooling Earth’s climate very fast.
The large ENSO of 1997-98, was a sign (not a cause, IMO) of a step change of Earth’s climate from a warming phase into the present “hiatus” or “slightly cooling” phase,
and the PDO is just reflecting these changes. There was a big spike in 1997-98 too similar to the present one,
By comparison, here is Bob Tisdale animation of the strong ENSO episode of 1997-98
from this post (2011)
Note that, at its strongest phase, all oceans were warm or neutral, the entire world warmed as a whole. This is very different from what is happening now where we have cold anomalies in Antarctica and good portions of the Atlantic and S. Pacific.
In my opinion the present problems with the Polar icecaps are temporary and should revert until the end of this year.
Direct satellite measurements tell a very different story,
It’s showing signs of rebound since 2008, when the maximum extent (April-May) started to get closer to the average again, after the very low levels of 2007.
In the last 3 years the minimum extent has been above 6 million km2 (15% concentration – DMI analysis), with good chances to repeat the feat this year,
and the 30% concentration close to 4 million km2, as happened in 2009-10,
The “recovery” seems well defined IMO, and it should accelerate in the coming years, due to less solar activity of the declining phase of the present cycle.
Posted @ https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/07/24/my-arctic-forecast-11/#comment-531545
DMI graph for concentration higher than 15% still shows ice extent slightly above the last 2 years,
I believe it’ll track 2014 closely until September, then go higher for the rest of the year. Solar activity seems to have entered the declining phase of the cycle. The LSC gave a spotless day for July 23,
and the total count for this year is also lower than 2013 and 2014
All these facts bring good prospects for both polar icecaps for the rest of 2015. The only problem I see now is the persistent strong warmth of the Pacific. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________ Thanks, here is an article of 2004 about Earth’s declining magnetic field,
and here is a discussion about the connection of the excursions of Earth’s magnetic poles and the end of previous interglacials, stadials, etc.,
The following graph shows the accelerated excursion of the Earth’s N. Magnetic Pole in recent decades,
I’ve been researching this topic for a few years and I’m convinced that glacial inception should happen in the “near future” (in geological terms), as I said in my previous post.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________ http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/09/0909_040909_earthmagfield.html posted on YT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKTZRjJFdXk
Posted on YT https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKTZRjJFdXk
I agree, this interglacial (Holocene) is all but finished. A new prolonged minimum (with solar activity even lower than the present already low cycle C24) will only accelerate the process.
If the predicted deep minimum doesn’t come-for some reason- glacial inception will still occur, but it’d take a few centuries to happen.
On the other hand, if the temperatures drop dramatically in the coming decades, the glacial inception will in all probability happen already this century.
Solar insolation at 65 N is very low now, lower than in various previous inceptions, and shall remain almost unaltered for thousands of years.
The Holocene temperatures have been falling steadily for at least 2,000 years,
the Maunder Minimum was only an abnormal dip in the process, due to low radiations 400 years ago, but the inception didn’t happened at that time probably due to stronger Earth’s magnetic field
Earth’s Magnetic Field Is Fading John Roach for National Geographic News September 9, 2004
Humanity should show maturity, as a species, and start a collective effort worldwide in preparation for the coming cold. People think in terms of the XX century, but it was an abnormally warm period- due to a prolonged solar grand maximum that lasted more than 7 decades.
The solar maximum has ended, and the importance of the low insolation at high latitudes should become clearer during the rest of this century.
Even the AGW alarmists agree that the Holocene would probably end if was not for “anthropogenic influence”, which they believe will revert the trend.
Now we, the skeptics, *know* that the greenhouse gases are causing no change in Earth’s climate in our time, and therefore we’re left only with the Sun, Earth’s magnetic field and insolation at high latitudes (modulated by ocean thermal oscillations, volcanic activity, etc.) to drive Earth’s climate. All these factors are telling us, very clearly IMO, that the present interglacial is about to end. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________ https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/07/15/1935-india-heatwave-made-roofs-catch-on-fire/#comment-530902
Interesting how you comment, “June 1935 was the first month of the modern maximum in solar activity, that lasted for 70 years until 2004.5,a period when the v2 SSNs averaged 108.5, versus the previous 70 years, 1865.5-1935.5 ..”
matches the data for aa-index very closely,
The trimester average was below 20 nT up to cycle C16, then it quickly increased in cycle C17 and remained stable above 20 nT up to the middle last cycle, C23. But, don’t tell this to NASA and NOAA (and possibly L. Svalgaard too), they think the Sun and the climate are totally disconnected! 🙂
and comments here,
How can we understand anything of Nature, if we don’t even know how to formulate our questions? We know that the Maunder minimum was colder than now and the Dalton minimum was similarly cold, in direct correlation with solar activity.
Now we’re about to have a modern, direct experience of a solar minimum, after an obvious extended solar maximum,
and instead of looking at the phenomenon we change the rules and say that “nothing is happening”?