Arctic Dipole again? Nah!

Here is another chart, for all oceans

the entire article at climate4you is here,

the one for the Pacific ocean 0-100 meters depth is

but, if the PDO is in negative phase since 2008, how the Pacific can be so warm? Maybe it’s following a similar path as the Atlantic but out of phase by a few years.

Here is the global lower troposphere temperature above oceans since 1979 (UAH). Look at what happened in 2008,

The original article is here,

I believe the Pacific is more sensible to solar activity than the Atlantic, due to its huge size.

I have to admit that I don’t understand what is happening with the PDO very well. The AMO, on the other hand, looks like a very precise thermometer of Earth’s global temperatures.

Arctic sea ice anomaly on Nov 11, 2015.



You didn’t understand my comment, and I’ll not try to explain it to you, but for those that may have read it without a biased mind and may be confused by your meaningless comment, I’ll try to expand a little what I said.
The model of Prof. Zharkova predicts a period of very low radiations from the Sun, similar to what happened in 2008-09 (two years) for no less than one entire solar cycle (11+ years).

The RSS graph clearly shows the profound implications of low radiations for an extended period (measured in years, not just a few weeks or months).
The oscillation downward of the anomalies in the 2008-09 period was comparable to the La Nina that followed the 1997-98 El Nino, but the ENSO of 2007 was much milder. Therefore, it seems clear to me that the additional cooling all came from the low radiative input from the Sun.
However, the El Nino’s tend to push worlds temps upward, as happened in 2010, but in this case the following La Nina’s (of 2011 and 2012) were not strong enough to bring the temperature anomalies down to 2008 levels.

Therefore, we may safely conclude that if the El Nino of 2010 didn’t happen, or if it had not been so strong, the world’s anomalies would be *easily* 0.1 to 0.2 C below the present levels.

Now imagine what would happen if instead of just one period we had a repetition of 2008-09 for 11+ years in a row.
I can imagine, in this case, a drop of 1 C during such a prolonged minimum, and this would bring Earth’s temperatures back to early 1800’s levels, typically LIA levels.



The ONI index is showing a not so strong El Nino so far,
It looks comparable to the moderate episode of 2006-07.

The heat seems localized mostly in the N. Pacific, IMO, the Atlantic and S Pacific are near normal or below normal

I agree with Steve that the N. Pacific is loosing energy fast, the PDO+ is quickly going down, as happened in similar previous spikes, the anomaly decreased by more than 1C since the beginning of this year,

I think solar radiations are also playing an important role and should help to accelerate the process in the final months of this year.

N. Pole temperatures are not very warm,

as happened in 2007

and 2012,

In general satellite measurements show world’s temperatures falling in the present “El Nino”, which is exactly the opposite of what happened in 1997-98, 2009-10, and even 2006-07

What is happening now looks like a different phenomenon than the previous moderate or strong El Nino’s.



Temperatures at the S. Pole are now at one of its lowest levels since 1979,

The N. Pole temps are also falling since 2011.
The problems with the Arctic ice this year are (IMO) exclusively due to the abnormal spike of the PDO, that started in 2014,



Thanks for the link, “125 years of cooling”?!
It’s more than Prof. Zharkova is predicting.
Here is a cut-n-paste of the main points

1. The 18+ years temperature pause is real. (4.09)
2. Natural cycles are behind the current pause.
3. Ice cores show CO2 lags temperature. (5.00)
4. 7000 years ago there was 50% less Arctic ice. (8.20)
5. The 1000-year cycle is real. (9.20)
6. Planet has been cooling over past 10,000 years. (9.34)
7. Natural cycles are driving our climate. (10.04)
8. Shows [natural cycles?] cooling from 2023 to 2150.
9. Current warming is perfectly natural.
10. Milankovitch cycles driving large-scale cycles. (13.00)
11. Gravitational forces can bulge Earth’s core by 1.4 km (15.35)
12. Gravitational forces impact global temperature (17.20)
13. Warming and cooling both begin at the poles (17.48)
14. Arctic warming/melt was caused by warm ocean pulses (19.50)
15. “Now starting to see a dramatic cooling in the Arctic“. (22.50)
16. “Arctic is cooling rapidly now. Rapidly!” (24.06)
17. Both poles are cooling rapidly now. (25.05)
18. Poles don’t show signs of warming. (26.30)
19. Western drought and Eastern cold due to 26-year cycle. (27.55)
20. Polar vortices due to Arctic/global cooling. (29.25)
21. Lunar cycles correlated with warming/cooling cycles. (31.30)
22. Rapid global cooling by 2019. (32.00)
23. “Temperature fiddling” are “more political than anything”. (32.56)
24. “Could be the biggest scientific scandal ever”. (33.20)
25. IPCC using “estimated temperatures”. (34.00)
26. How the government manipulated, rewrote data. (36.00)
27. “This is temperature fiddling.” Not the truth. (36.45)
28. NASA, NOAA’s “politically driven press releases”. (37.00)
29. Met Office calls NOAA’s 2014 claim untrue. (38.00)
30. Major data fiddling, cheating by NOAA. (39.50)
31. “The 97% consensus is bogus”. (41.00)
32. John Cook cooked the consensus data. (41.30)
33. 85% meteorologists say climate change is natural. (42.20)
34. Global cooling is the real danger. (43.20)
35. Volcanoes and cooling often correlated. (44.00)
36. Crop failures from cooling “very likely”. (45.45)
37. “Extremely cold” from 2025 to 2050. (46.36)
38. Global cooling next 125 years. (47.00)
39. “The cooling is coming”.

I’d like to highlight the following two, which I agree, but may be controversial to some people,
13. Warming and cooling both begin at the poles (17.48)
17. Both poles are cooling rapidly now. (25.05)

I’ve noticed also that David Dilley, as usual, doesn’t mention the Sun.
I tend to believe that if what he and Prof. Zharkova say are correct, there is a good chance that glacial inception will happen this century.


The difference of the present AMO levels to the lowest of the XX century is *only* ~ 0.5 C,

The non detrended AMO index (average North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST)) is probably below 21 C now.

Here is what I think NSIDC is conveniently hiding: the PDO has reached its warmest level since 1997,

The present spike is *the largest in amplitude* (7 years average) since the end of the 1950’s

and it coincided with the local maximum of solar radiations (2nd peak) from the end of 2013 to January this year, as happened with the solar maximums of cycles C21 (~1982-83), C22 (~1992-93) and C23 (~2002-03), which also corresponded to local spikes of the PDO.

The large oscillation of 1997-98, coincided with the largest El Nino on record, and a step change of Earth’s climate from a warming phase into the present “hiatus” or “slightly cooling” phase,

I believe the low level of the Arctic ice of the beginning of this years was *entirely* a consequence of relatively strong solar radiations in 2014 that importantly favored the abnormal warming of the Pacific, but for the NSIDC folks it was caused by CO2! 🙂

I guess if the present PDO, coinciding with a (not so strong) El Nino, would not be the harbinger of another step change in Earth’s climate, obviously toward a colder climate.
One thing is very clear from the PDO graph since 1979, the general trend of the Pacific is into a negative phase.

Why Cryosphere is giving 1.7 million below average?

It makes no sense, it’s totally incompatible with the DMI graph.
The different reference averages, 1979-2000 (DMI) and 1979-2008 (Cryosphere), should give a *smaller* difference to the average for Cryosphere than DMI.
Are they using different ice concentrations?

What about the Antarctic ice,

Is it back to negative anomalies again?
if “yes”, how can we understand this new trend if the southern oceans are quite cold (as they’ve been in the last few years) in comparison with the NH,

Sometimes the Cryosphere graph seems to diverge from other data.


Q. Chic Bowdrie says: July 20, 2015 at 1:14 am
Here’s a link predicting a different outcome.
Can anyone interpret this temperature vs. pressure dual for me?

Caleb could explain this better than me, but he seems to be talking about a pattern of winds that caused the very low minimums of Arctic ice extent in 2007 and 2012. He’s analyzing the local patterns of temperature and pressure in the Arctic and concluding that this year we have a SLP pattern similar to 2007 to 2012, “which caused an Arctic Dipole in those years”.
In my opinion he’s wrong, because he’s not considering the different phases of the PDO

and AMO

now and in 2007, 2012.
The Pacific ocean has warmed considerably and the Atlantic has cooled relatively to those years and this presents a less favorable scenario for great ice loss.
Another important fact he’s not considering is the low level of radiations this year in comparison with 2012, which had a 1st semester with relatively strong level of radiations in comparison with present levels.
He’s is obviously wishing for a very low minimum of ice extent this year, like in 2007 and 2012 (he calls the Arctic Dipole his “old friend”, not without a reason), but I don’t think his wish will be granted this year, by Mother Nature.

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